Forecast of the development of the global economy in 2008 and 2009

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 4.1% in 2008. However, many economic researchers point out that the value of the euro, the price of oil as well as the mortgage crisis in the United States make forecasts difficult. The OECD expects GDP in the United States to increase by 1.5% in 2008 and by 2.2% in 2009. According to these forecasts, Japan, which was not affected as strongly by the global economic dynamism of recent years, will see a slightly more restrained increase in GDP of 1.6% in 2008 and 1.8% in 2009. For China, the five leading German economic research institutes predict that GDP growth in 2008 will be somewhat slower than the previous 10%. The economic researchers expect growth of 8.4% in India. For Russia, they assume that GDP will rise by 6.5%.

Foreign trade will be one of the biggest strains on European development in 2008. The co-occurrence of a weaker global economy with a real effective appreciation of the euro by recently around 3% compared to 2006 is likely to result in the euro zone facing a dampening effect in 2008 after experiencing weak growth impetus from foreign trade in 2007. Despite these burdens, a rise in private consumption, which could gain dynamism in 2008, could help to avert an overall stoppage of growth in the euro zone. The OECD expects GDP growth of 1.6% in 2008 and 2.0% in 2009 for the euro zone.

For Germany, the top five German economic research institutes expect GDP to increase by 1.9% in 2008. Private consumption, or domestic demand, is expected to rise noticeably and to account for around half of economic expansion in 2008. Investment in machinery and equipment will also drive growth although the investment dynamism of recent years will clearly decline.