Different sources have issued varying forecasts of the economic environment in which Merck operates. Common to all forecasts is that they assume growth in 2010, yet the stability of the recovery, which is often referred to as fragile, is unclear. In order to provide an overview and to document the differences between the forecasts, we are presenting the GNP growth forecasts by various institutes in the form of a table. In its predictions, Merck orients toward the forecasts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Forecasts by leading international organizations for 2010 and 2011 in comparison |
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Development of GDP (in %) |
Source |
2010 |
2011 |
World |
IMF |
3.9 |
4.3 |
|
OECD |
1.9 |
2.5 |
|
World Bank |
2.7 |
3.2 |
United States |
IMF |
2.7 |
2.4 |
|
OECD |
2.5 |
2.8 |
|
World Bank |
2.5 |
2.7 |
Japan |
IMF |
1.7 |
2.2 |
|
OECD |
1.8 |
2.0 |
|
World Bank |
1.3 |
1.8 |
EU |
IMF |
1.0 |
1.6 |
|
OECD |
0.9 |
1.7 |
|
World Bank |
1.0 |
1.7 |
Germany |
IMF |
1.5 |
1.9 |
|
OECD |
1.6 |
1.9 |
|
Eurostat |
1.2 |
1.7 |
China |
IMF |
10.0 |
9.7 |
|
OECD |
10.2 |
9.3 |
|
World Bank |
9.0 |
9.0 |
India |
IMF |
7.7 |
7.8 |
|
OECD |
7.3 |
7.6 |
|
World Bank |
7.5 |
8.0 |
Brazil |
IMF |
4.7 |
3.7 |
|
OECD |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
World Bank |
3.6 |
3.9 |
For the OECD’s 30 member countries, the OECD expects a global increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.9% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011. The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2010 and by 2.8% in 2011.
According to the forecasts, the economy of the euro zone is expected to grow slightly by 0.9% in 2010 and somewhat more strongly by 1.7% in 2011. In Germany, the OECD expects GDP to increase by 1.6% in 2010 and by 1.9% in 2011.
For Japan, economists forecast GDP growth of 1.8% in 2010 and 2.0% in 2011. China remains the engine of the global upturn, owing to the fact that this country was affected by the financial crisis only to a limited extent and the government introduced a massive economic stimulus program.
Uncertainty also dominates the forecasts regarding the expected unemployment figures. The EU Commission assumes a strong increase in unemployment mainly in Germany, where the unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 9.2% in 2010. The OECD expects unemployment to reach its highest level in the United States in mid-2010, however not until early 2011 in the euro zone, and not even until mid-2011 in Germany.
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