For 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a 3.3% increase in global gross domestic product (GDP), including a 1.2% rise in the industrialized countries. According to the estimate, in 2012 industrialized countries with good economic ties to Asia will perform best. According to the IMF, the sovereign debt crisis in the EU is threatening the global economy and the eurozone will experience a weak recession in 2012.
For developing countries and emerging markets, the IMF expects GDP growth of 5.4%. The IMF assesses the prospects for emerging markets more moderately owing to the situation in Europe as well as weaker domestic demand. The IMF forecasts global GDP growth of 3.9%. GDP growth is expected to improve by 1.9% in industrialized countries in 2013.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) assumes that for the coming years, overall global economic growth measured by GDP will continue to be driven primarily by developing countries and emerging markets, and not by OECD member states. For its member states, the OECD expects GDP to increase by 1.6% in 2012 and by 2.3% in 2013. However, should the euro crisis intensify and the U.S. economy deteriorate, the aforementioned figures would be meaningless and would need to be lowered. In this scenario, GDP of the United States would decline by 1.8% (2012) and 0.1% (2013); in the eurozone GDP would likely fall by 2.1% (2012) and 2.3% (2013). However, if the euro crisis is quickly contained, GDP developments would be as follows: GDP would grow by 2.8% (2012) and 3.4% (2013) in the United States and by 1.3% (2012) and 3.3% (2013) in the eurozone.
The forecasts for 2012 made by Datamonitor, a provider of economic data, are similar to those of the IMF and OECD and therefore underpin their assumptions of upcoming developments.
As far as possible, our forecast takes into account uncertainties in relation to overall economic developments as well as in certain markets.
General forecast for the pharmaceutical sector
According to calculations by the pharmaceutical data provider Evaluate Pharma, the global market for prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) products will increase by 2.7% to US$ 765 billion in 2012. For 2013, sales are predicted to increase by 3.8% to US$ 794 billion compared to 2012. Evaluate Pharma also assumes that the share of biopharmaceuticals among the 100 top-selling pharmaceutical products will increase to 44% in the coming years.
The pharmaceutical market research firm IMS Health (Intercontinental Marketing Services Health) forecasts that the global pharmaceutical market will grow by between 3% and 6% annually up until 2015, based on sales of US$ 856 billion in 2010. In the five preceding years, the market grew by an average of 6.2% per year. According to the data, overall market volume should increase by between US$ 210 billion and US$ 240 billion up until 2015, then reaching a total volume of between US$ 1,065 billion and US$ 1,095 billion. While the U.S. market represented 36% of the global market in 2010, this share is expected to decline to 31% by 2015. The United States will then still be the world’s largest market (US$ 320 billion to US$ 350 billion). IMS Health sees Japan remaining in second place in 2015 (11% share, US$ 110 billion to US$ 140 billion), followed by China (US$ 115 billion to US$ 125 billion) and Germany (US$ 38 billion to US$ 43 billion).
General forecast for the chemical industry
For the years 2012 and 2013, ICIS market researchers expect that global chemical production will grow by 5.3% and 4.7%, respectively, provided that a recession does not occur. Rising energy prices, declining construction activity as well as the debt crisis in the United States and Europe could have a negative impact on the forecasts.
According to ICIS, global capital spending will increase to more than US$ 1 trillion in 2016 from US$ 548 billion in 2011. ICIS forecasts that emerging markets will show stronger growth than the industrialized countries, above all China, which is already the world’s largest producer of chemicals. India will also achieve high growth rates. For specialty chemicals, a market in which Merck operates, ICIS expects global production to rise by 4% in 2012 and by 2.9% in 2013.
The European chemical industry association Conseil Européen de l’Industrie Chimique (Cefic) expects chemical production by European chemical companies to increase by 2.5% in 2012. In 2013, it may become possible to achieve the level last seen in 2007, before the serious crisis of 2008. The Cefic member companies represent 21% of global chemical production.
The German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) forecasts that sales will grow by 2% in 2012, based on sales of € 186.5 billion in 2011. Production should increase by 1%.
In November 2011, the French chemical industry association Union des Industries Chimiques (UIC), which holds a leading position in Europe alongside the VCI, revised its outlook for production growth in 2012 from 2.4% to 1.8%. The reasons given were the perceptible economic crisis and the associated reluctance of customers to restock their warehouses.