General forecast for the pharmaceutical sector
The pharmaceutical market research firm IMS Institute expects worldwide growth of pharmaceuticals to be between US$ 220 billion to US$ 250 billion from 2012 to 2016. Growth will be driven by emerging markets primarily due to increased access to medicines. These markets will nearly double in size and contribute US$ 150 billion to US$ 165 billion to worldwide pharmaceutical growth in spending.
On the contrary mature markets such as the United States, the top five markets in Europe and Japan will not contribute as much to the overall growth. However, as a consequence of the healthcare reforms by the Obama administration, an increase in spending in the healthcare sector is expected in 2013 and 2014. The U.S. market is forecast to grow by 1% to 4% or US$ 35 billion to US$ 45 billion through 2016.
The top five European markets will continue to suffer from austerity measures and only grow by 1% to 2% through 2016. Japan is expected to see growth rates between 1% and 4% until 2016.
According to the IMS Institute, the United States is set to remain the leading market worldwide by 2016, followed by China, which is expected to replace Japan in second place. Brazil is forecast to move up from sixth to fourth place in 2016, followed by Germany, which currently ranks fourth.
Evaluate Pharma, another pharmaceutical industry market research firm, forecasts worldwide prescription drug sales to grow by nearly 3% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) through 2018 to reach a volume of US$ 885 billion. The experts assume that the worldwide market will grow by 3.3% to US$ 732 billion in 2013 and another 3.7% to US$ 760 billion in 2014.
The IMS Institute expects the number of drugs to be approved for marketing to increase to an average between 32 and 37 each year through 2016.
General forecast for the chemical industry
In a recent publication, the German Chemical Industry Association VCI (Verband der Chemischen Industrie) expects world chemical output to increase by 3.5% in 2013. According to this publication Europe’s chemicals industry is forecasted to increase production by 1.0%, whereas the United States is expected to increase its chemicals output by 1.5%, Japan by 1.5%, South Korea by 3.0%, India by 4.5% and China by 9.5%.
The European Chemical Industry Council Cefic (Conseil Européen de l’Industrie Chimique ) forecasts a slight expansion of 0.5% in European chemicals output in 2013. This outlook for the overall chemical sector, excluding pharmaceuticals, is based on an optimistic assumption of modest growth in every quarter. Consumer products, excluding pharmaceuticals, will show a growth rate of only 1.0% in 2013.
The VCI assumes that the German chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) is set to rise 1.5% in 2013. Output of fine and specialty chemicals is expected to increase in 2013 by 1.5%, the production of pharmaceuticals by German companies is forecast to increase by 2.5%, according to the VCI. Sales in 2013 should increase by 2.0% to € 188 billion (including pharmaceuticals). China, which currently ranks 11th in terms of German chemical industry exports, is expected to increase its importance continuously, the industry body says.
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